Afghanistan and Pakistan: The Haunting Shadow of the Great Game

South Asia is a theatre riddled with complex problems of security, territorial disputes, internal conflicts, economic discrepancies and non-traditional security concerns like climate change and public health issues. With a rich cultural tapestry and civilisational status it is region of great significance – both economic and geopolitical. However, the regional needs of South Asia have often taken a backseat to national priorities and bilateral tensions between member nations, making cooperation in security hard to achieve.

South Asia has been subject to the increasing acrimony like the United States and China who have become significant actors here. The proximity of South Asia to the Indo-Pacific has also had direct implications for the region. The Indo-Pacific is a vast network of sea lanes that comprises of the Indian Ocean and the western and central Pacific. It houses 60% of the world’s population and is an important trade-route in the 21st century. The election of Donald Trump as the President of the United States in 2024 and the future of US-China ties in disarray – could have considerable consequences for South Asia. The complex security needs of the domain ranging from territorial disputes between India and Pakistan, terse ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan to the domination felt by Bhutan and Maldives by India, and the surge in non-traditional threats like climate change, mass migration, and cyber vulnerabilities, has made cooperative security vital in the region. The lack of multilateral cooperation, failing regional institutions and open dialogue between nations is greatly felt.

Given that most modern-day issues are not restricted to borders, the absence of regional and global cooperation makes it hard to achieve solutions to problems of security whether the threat be tradition or non-traditional. The uniqueness of the South Asian security landscape lies in fragmentary nature and the abject failure of institutions like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). While minilateral institutions like Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) offers platforms to countries to come together and communicate, they have meet with limited success.

The deteriorating state of bilateral relations in the area has been a significant reason for the breakdown in cooperation and warrants closer attention to promote regional integration. While there are many countries to look at, Afghanistan-Pakistan (Af-Pak) relations with its complicated history, cultural proximity and strategic diversity offers an interesting case study for investigation. The tension and animosity between the two countries comes with a high-risk of spillover to disrupt regional stability. It also offers an understanding of how external powers like the United States and China have emerged as significant actors who are embroiled in the affairs of the region.

Afghanistan-Pakistan: Unfriendly Neighbourhood

Afghanistan and Pakistan’s relationship carries significant weight of colonialism, Cold War politics and terrorism. Some the issues that plague their relationship include a disputed border with the Durand Line to the problem of Pashtunistan. Terrorist financing, destabilisation of internal affairs, migration issues and a plethora of other problems have emerged in recent times and the once consolidated block of Af-Pak does not remain so. However, things were not this bad always. Pakistan’s sympathies for Afghanistan and their support for the Taliban was no secret. The clerical section of Pakistan and the Taliban shared close ties over an orthodox interpretation of Islam and the call for Jihad. Pakistan supported the Taliban with training, arms, money and political support from General Pervez Musharaff, in fact a sizeable chunk of the Taliban fighters even received their training in the Madrasas of Karachi.

Things took a turn for the worse with the 9/11 terror attacks, the Lal Masjid attack in 2007 and the Safoora Chowrangee Massacre on Pakistani soil. Pakistan’s pro-Afghanistan stance wavered when America threatened to withdraw all favours granted to Islamabad since the Cold War which included millions of dollars that greased the wheels of the Pakistani economy and military and the fear of being declared a ‘terrorist state’. Pakistan’s anxiousness over international isolation and pariah status, if it continued supporting the Taliban led to it severing ties with Afghanistan. However, the seeds of extremism that were sown during the early 1990’s and Islamabad’s support for Mullah Omar had taken deep roots on either side of the Durand Line and were going nowhere. What followed is a quagmire that is riddled with issues of a porous border, the presence of militant groups, and cross-border terrorist attacks attached with a high civilian price.

Where are Things Now?

The two South Asian countries are in various stages of decay – Afghanistan has been taken over by the Taliban who rules it with an iron grip and Pakistan is dealing with a mammoth economic crisis with its total public debt and liabilities estimated at $223.86 billion. Security concerns like the resurgence of the Tehrik-e Taliban (TTP) and rise of the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISIS-K) has been a major concern for Pakistan. Given the state of diplomatic decay between Af-Pak, the Taliban have not been cooperative in dealing with issues of increased terrorism in Pakistan. The Taliban has refused to assist Pakistan in curbing the activities of the TTP whose resurgence has caused destruction, loss of life and severe damages for Islamabad. It is alleged that TTP militants are trained in Afghanistan in areas surrounding Khost and Paktika and leverage the porous border in North to slip in and out of Pakistan. Given that Afghanistan has historically never accepted the Durand Line, it makes patrolling and securing the border difficult for Pakistan.

In 2021, the TTP carried out 282 terrorist attacks alone. In 2022, more than 80 security personnels were dead. It mostly functions in the former Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) which is now part of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region in Northern Pakistan. The TTP is Al-Qaeda’s strongest ally in South Asia and shares close ties with Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) that fights for Deobandhi supremacy in Pakistan. Pakistan has accused Afghanistan of creating a mini-Jihadist arena in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region and for not cooperating in containing the TTP.

Afghanistan has always maintained that the rise of the TTP is an internal issue for Pakistan and it is simply not their business to intervene. Issues like poor governance, law and order problems and high levels of corruption have made it easy for organisations like the TTP to setup in parts of Baluchistan and Karachi. Pakistan alleges that while these issues did posit conducive conditions for terrorism to germinate and spread, Afghanistan has been critical in providing the logistical support that the TTP require to cause terror. Afghanistan’s major contention has been that Pakistan has always meddled in its internal affairs and has made governance a challenge.

The Problem of Community

A lot of the issues that characterise contemporary Af-Pak relations are manifestations of historical and communal grievances. The Durand line was an artificial border drawn by the British that divided the Pashtuni tribal territory into Afghanistan and Pakistan. While the Pashtun’s make up 42% of the Afghani population, they comprise only 15% of Pakistan’s population. The Durand Line has been unsuccessful in dividing the tribe and the Pashtuni people refuse to accept its demarcation. This has added to the tensions of Pakistan that sees Afghanistan’s non-acceptance of the northern border as a direct attack on its sovereignty. Even if the Taliban do intervene and accept the division, the Pashtuni people do not seem to accept the division in territory.

An immediate aftermath of this conundrum has been the creation of a Pashtuni nationalism and that has complicated efforts on both sides of the border to settle issues. The Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) has emerged in Pakistan demanding for more rights and are often supported wholeheartedly by Afghanistan. Given Pakistan’s historic treatment of its minorities, the issues has resulted in substantial damage for Pakistan’s internal security. These internal discontents are then systematically harnessed by extremist groups who infiltrate the psyche of people and propose radical terrorist activities as the only solution to such problems. The radicalisation of Pashtuni nationalism with Islamist extremism has been done quite well by the TTP to wreak havoc in the northern side of Pakistan. The mutual distrust on either side of the border has resulted in multiple border conflicts and skirmishes taking place. How is this a regional problem?

The securitisation of Northern Pakistan and Afghanistan and the constant eruption of terrorist activities has left South Asia in a state of constant tension. The extremism perpetuated in either country could easily spillover across the region. The Jihadist movements could easily be mirrored and used to fuel more violence in other parts of Pakistan, Afghanistan and the rest of South Asia. The fact that these countries lie in close proximity to Central Asia should also not be overlooked. Pakistan’s counter-terrorist strategies have been limited in reach including the National Action Plan (NAP) introduced in 2014 and operations like Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fasaad.

Bangladesh has already been impacted significantly with the Taliban coming to power in Afghanistan, the further radicalisation of South Asia in Islamist extremism. Organisations like the Hifazat-e-Islam and Jamaat-e-Islami have already been emboldened by the Taliban and given the recent political instability may find rising extremism in the region as more conducive to their growth. India faces troubles with Al-Qaeda (AQ) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM). There isn’t a single nation in South Asia that will not be impacted by terrorism and rising extremism.

External Players and Af-Pak Dynamics

The United States of America withdrew from Afghanistan with a failed agenda. Its hasty withdrawal and the takeover by the Taliban resulted in feelings of betrayal and hurt in the people of Afghanistan. This has not boded well for Pakistan as well given that the US sees it as ineffective in controlling terrorism and the quality of the role that Pakistan plays in the War on Terror. Pakistan feels if not a little betrayed by the United States and has been public in voicing its difference. While Pakistan demands a more equal sitting with all of America’s allied, America believes Pakistan has not been successful in weeding out unwanted elements from its backyard. An assessment that one can hardly argue with. What this also points to is that the basis of cooperation between the US and Pakistan has mostly been ad-hoc and limited to achieving immediate security need – whether it was the cold war, fighting the Al-Qaeda post-9/11 or using it to destabilise Afghanistan in retribution.

The American retraction from Af-Pak affairs and the inability of both Afghanistan and Pakistan to main economic stability has resulted in China getting embroiled in the fore. While China’s intentions of engagement are purely economic, given that it has no intentions of social or political engineering in either Pakistan or Afghanistan. Its primary interest lies in the two countries because of their strategic location and what they can do for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) especially through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Pakistan with its faltering economy jumped at the chance of procuring a $62 Billion investment and began an “all-weather” partnership with the Red Dragon. This worked in both their favours as their alliance could also balance a rising India, a country the former are not particularly fond off.

China also prioritised its economic needs when dealing with Afghanistan and was the first country to host the Talabani Ambassador. Given that it has no qualms in dealing with countries that espouse non-democratic and ill-liberal values, both Af-Pakistan are some regional allies of China in South Asia. China has not only made economic investments but when it felt that the security concerns in the region could impede economic cooperation, set up multiple counterterrorism initiatives and border patrolling measures. China also sees positive ties with both Af-Pak to be essential in its India Policy. Thus, a deepening presence of China can be seen in - what is an already turbulent quagmire.

Whether it be the United States or whether it be China, South Asia has emerged on the international scene as an important strategic zone. Its problems are unique and its merit plenty. We need to understand that the forces at play here are often opposing and against the national interest of most countries, which has left regional integration weakened. Regional cooperation has been elusive in South Asia for many reasons but nothing as strong as the lack of any economic impetus to cooperate as often observed in other regional blocs like Europe and South-East Asia. With the fragmentation of the region into individual security calculations, it becomes easy for outside forces to come and push players around. It also makes dialogue and trust hard to come by.

The Future of Cooperation in South Asia

Such a preliminary investigation of Afghanistan and Pakistan reveals great insight into some of the problems that plagues South Asia. The complex security landscape and its multiple architects all point to failed multilateralism and open dialogue, the cloud of mistrust and the nature of the threats present in South Asia, points to the need for a cooperative framework of security to be adopted. Given the transnational nature of most security threats today, the only pragmatic solution is - to cooperate. Cooperation is not simply for traditional notions of security that deal with military threats and missiles, it includes issues like climate change, public health, migration and cybersecurity.

Countries like the Maldives, India and Bangladesh are projected to suffer from devasting effects of climate change soon, if not addressed in a timely manner. The impact of the climate crisis can be mitigated in due time but if the countries collaborate to create disaster preparedness mechanisms, creation frameworks for resource management and sharing and cooperate in technological innovation for green futures, they could reduce the level of destruction borne by one country.
Secondly, regional health cooperation in building South Asia’s public health systems is vital. The Covid-19 pandemic had devastating effects for the entire world, but South Asia faced unprecedented consequences given that its public health care system is already stretched due to its large population. A regional framework that could help in mitigating the effects of the next global health crisis is the need of the hour – vaccination development and management, distribution plans, research and development along with disease surveillance methods are crucial to develop. Thirdly, underpinning all of these problems is the need for technological innovation and the prevention of maladaptive uses of technology. Cybersecurity is becoming an increasing important concern in South Asia. The region is home to some of the fasted growing digital markets and health economies in the world and has been facing increased cybersecurity threats. The creation of a comprehensive plan on the sharing of technology to solve for issues and a plan on cyber defence is needed.

Conclusion

The contention seen in Af-Pakistan relations is just one strand of the confusion and mistrust seen among South Asian countries. The historical mistrust, the lack of a comprehensive regional identity and the increasing presence of external forces are factors that make South Asia a volatile theatre. The mistrust and non-alignment between the countries of South Asia have made cooperation hard to obtain in the region.

To truly understand the potential of South Asia – a shared sense of being needs to be constructed in the region that allows nations to see that their gains are not mutually exclusive from one another but complimentary in nature. The problems that they face do not recognise national borders or national security calculations and thus the methods to resolve should also be innovative and transnational in nature. This will only be possible is South Asia adopts a newer and more comprehensive understanding of what security encompasses.