Anatomy of Collapse: Thirteen Days That Could Change Syria

The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 marks a watershed moment in the politics of the Middle East: it ends more than five decades of Assad family rule and fundamentally reshapes Syria’s political landscape. The quick advance of opposition forces, including the capture of Damascus and Assad’s flight from the country, shattered long-held assumptions
about the durability of authoritarian regimes in the region and created new strategic imperatives for regional and global powers.

The speed with which Assad’s regime fell—major cities dropping to opposition forces in days—underlines both the structural weaknesses of his regime that had been living with them for a long time and the need for external support that underpinned his rule. For years, Russian airpower and Iranian backed ground forces, notably Hezbollah, had propped up Assad’s rule. When these props gave way because of Russia’s fixation on Ukraine and the escalation of Iran’s preoccupation with Israel, the wobbling Syrian regime came undone.

This collapse challenges conventional wisdom about the nature of authoritarian stability in the Middle East. Assad’s regime, so seemingly resilient, proved incredibly brittle when its external supporters were distracted by other
conflicts. The rapid collapse of government forces, marked by mass retreats and the abandonment of defensive positions, revealed how thoroughly the Syrian military had been hollowed out by years of corruption and factional interests. The much-talked-about support for the Syrian regime was also laid bare as another puppet theatre that marked the security conversation in the area.

The New Power in Syria

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Ahmed al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani), stepped into the vacuum. The group’s evolution from being an al-Qaeda affiliate to its current position as the dominant opposition force represents one of the most remarkable transformations in modern Middle Eastern politics. HTS now faces the challenge of transitioning from an insurgent force to a governing authority in the country, which has had a skeletal government for a long time.

HTS will look out for minorities, continue diplomatic relations with foreign governments, and implement civilian administrations with full diversity to reflect an international legitimacy goal. Yet HTS still has an uphill battle because most countries in the world to recognise HTS as a terrorist group, and for it to be accepted as an established legitimate power, it will need the help of arch-rival Iran and the litmus test of moderation, which will make other countries to take it seriously.

Regional Recalibration

The fall of Assad regime has forced regional powers to reassess their positions rapidly. Türkiye, which has long supported various opposition groups while focusing primarily on containing Kurdish autonomy along its border, now has to navigate a new landscape where HTS’s expanded control could either stabilise or further destabilise its southern frontier.

The Assad regime had been an essential component of Tehran’s “axis of resistance,” allowing for the provision of support to Hezbollah and giving strategic depth against Israel. The loss of this ally could thus undermine Iran’s regional position when it is under increasing pressure on multiple fronts.

The Russian position in the Middle East has been eroded sharply. Moscow intervention in Syria in 2015 placed it at a prime brokerage position in the region as well as to have gained reliability as a military partner. Needless to say, the Russian distraction in Ukraine will mean that the gains in Africa will also be open to re-negotiation by regional and supra-national powers.

The priority for the Syrian new power structure is building stable governance within a country utterly devastated by more than ten years of civil war. The figures are shocking: hundreds of thousands killed, millions displaced, and structures devastated. HTS must demonstrate that it can transform its military victory into political stability.

Several Critical Challenges Loom Ahead

First, the new leadership has to establish basic security and services in areas long accustomed to state authority, even if that authority was corrupt and inefficient. This means maintaining public order, ensuring the continuation of essential services, and preventing revenge killings or sectarian violence.

Second, its economy requires an urgent intervention. Years of war, international sanctions, and corruption have left it in shambles. A new government must attend to immediate humanitarian needs yet embark on the enormous task of reorganisation and reconstruction.

Third, the new authorities must manage Syria’s complex sectarian and ethnic makeup. Assad’s regime, despite its brutality, maintained a degree of stability through a complex system of patronage and fear. HTS must now demonstrate it can protect minorities and manage diverse communities without resorting to Assad-style repression.

International Implications

The international community is now presented with difficult choices about how to engage with Syria’s new reality. Western nations must find a balance between the desire to support Syria’s reconstruction efforts and concerns over HTS’s background and intentions. A terrorist designation complicates the provision of aid and diplomatic engagement.

The Role of International Institutions

The United Nations and other international organisations need to change too. Peace frameworks developed before, such as UN Security Council Resolution 2254, were based on assumptions of regime stability that no longer hold. New approaches are needed to consider the current power balance and promote stability and reconciliation.

Conclusion

The end of the Assad dynasty represents both an opportunity and a challenge for Syria and the broader Middle East. While the removal of a brutal dictatorship opens possibilities for positive change, the risks of continued instability and violence remain high.

In these critical first days, the international response will determine whether Syria steps toward stability or descends further into chaos. The question will be how to support the civilian population of Syria as political inclusion and moderation flow from the new authorities.

The rapid collapse of the Assad regime shows that a stable authoritarian system may come crashing down very quickly indeed if its key support structures give way. For Syrian people, who have suffered through more than a decade of brutal war, hope must be that this dramatic shift does not plunge them deeper into chaos but into the promise of reconstruction and reconciliation.

The task before HTS is enormous, and the alternative—a return to civil war or the birth of a new dictatorship—is catastrophic for both Syria and the region. The international community must devise ways to constructively engage with Syria’s new reality while promoting stability, human rights, and genuine political reform.
But will it?