Between Tigers & Dragons: Anura Kumara Dissanayake, The New Sri Lankan President

In a surprising turn of events that has captured the attention of South Asia watchers, Sri Lanka has elected Anura Kumara Dissanayake as its new president. Leading the National People’s Power (NPP) coalition to victory in September 2024, Dissanayake’s ascension marks a significant shift in Sri Lankan politics. However, as new information emerges, it becomes clear that this change represents less a leftward ideological move and more a profound rejection of the political establishment.

The Rise of the NPP: Disgust with the Status Quo

The NPP’s victory, spearheaded by Dissanayake’s Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party, is best understood not as a triumph of leftist ideology, but as an expression of deep-seated frustration with Sri Lanka’s political elite. As pollster Ravi Rannan-Eliya noted in remarks to The Wire, “This isn’t about the IMF – it’s about people’s rejection of the establishment. People have finally lost patience with an establishment that doesn’t hear them. I think disgust is the correct word.”

This sentiment reflects a broader trend of disillusionment with traditional political parties in the wake of the 2022 economic crisis and subsequent Aragalaya protests. The electorate’s choice of the NPP appears to be less about embracing socialism and more about taking a gamble on change. As our source puts it, “A lot of people just gambled on the NPP. Who knows how it’ll turn out?”

A New Kind of Coalition: Beyond Traditional Left-Right Divides

Contrary to initial perceptions, the NPP’s support base defies simple categorization. While rooted in the leftist JVP, the coalition has attracted a diverse group of voters, many of whom do not identify as Marxists or even leftists. Pollsters reveal that a significant portion of NPP voters are “urban, upper-middle-class people” including “lots of young doctors.”

This composition suggests that the NPP might be better understood as analogous to modern Western center-left parties like the Democrats in the US, Labour in the UK, or the Social Democratic Party in Germany. Polling data supports this view, showing that the NPP performed best among “middle-income, upper-middle-income, educated, often professional, urban Sinhalese” voters.

Intriguingly, it was Sajith Premadasa, Dissanayake’s opponent, who performed better among lower-income groups - a reversal of traditional leftist voting patterns. This unexpected demographic support underscores the complexity of Sri Lanka’s current political landscape.

A Fragile Mandate: The Challenge of Non-Loyalist Voters

Perhaps the most striking aspect of the NPP’s victory is the fluidity of its support base. Our sources indicate that an astonishing 99% of NPP voters in this election had not supported the party previously. This statistic highlights the volatile nature of the electorate’s choice - these voters “are not loyalists. They could easily vote for someone else next time.”

This lack of a committed base presents both an opportunity and a challenge for Dissanayake’s administration. While it reflects a broad mandate for change, it also means that the NPP will need to deliver tangible results quickly to maintain its support.

Balancing Act: Rural Roots and Urban Appeal

While Dissanayake (often referred to as AKD) performed best among urban, middle-income Sinhalese voters, he also maintained crucial rural support. This dual appeal was essential for his victory and will be critical for governing effectively. The challenge for AKD will be to balance the interests and expectations of these diverse constituencies.

Geopolitical Implications: A Pragmatic Approach?

The NPP’s diverse support base and apparent ideological flexibility could have significant implications for Sri Lanka’s foreign policy. Rather than a hard shift to the left, we might expect a more pragmatic approach to international relations. This could potentially ease concerns about dramatic changes in Sri Lanka’s stance towards key partners like India and China.

Looking Ahead: Governance Beyond Ideology

As Sri Lanka embarks on this new political journey, the international community must recalibrate its understanding of the country’s political dynamics. The NPP’s victory represents not so much a leftist resurgence as a wholesale rejection of the political status quo.

For policymakers and diplomats engaged with the region, this nuanced reality presents both challenges and opportunities. It underscores the need for adaptive strategies that recognize the complexity of Sri Lankan politics beyond traditional left-right divides.

The success of Dissanayake’s administration will depend on its ability to translate the electorate’s desire for change into effective governance. If successful, this model of politics - transcending traditional ideological boundaries while addressing deep-seated public frustrations - could have far-reaching implications for political movements across South Asia and beyond.

As this new chapter unfolds, Sri Lanka once again finds itself at the center of regional attention, its political experiment likely to resonate far beyond its shores. The world watches to see if this gamble for change will pay off, not just for Sri Lanka, but as a potential blueprint for political renewal in other nations grappling with public disillusionment and entrenched elites.

The Sri Lankan elections conducted a historic second round of voting to elect Anura Kumara Dissanayake as its next president. The election held on 21st September 2024 was the island nations first election since an unprecedented financial crisis hit the nation two years ago.