Book Review: Population History of India: From the First Modern People to the Present Day

Tim Dyson, in his book, “Population History of India: From the First Modern People to the Present Day,” wrote a gripping analysis of what the population was like in the era of the first modern people, i.e., the Homo sapiens, to the population in the year 2016. The author looked at the various historical evidence and speculations from 80,000 years ago to the present day. The population dynamics included birth and death rates, fertility levels, marriage structure, governance, epidemics, population rise, disease patterns, legal and social structures, and the entrance of new populations to the Indian subcontinent.

The book beautifully captures the diversities in the data given by various historians and scholars and why some numbers make sense while others do not. The data justifications that Dyson has given reflect an excellent study on the subject matter.
The initial chapters discuss the arrival of modern human beings, “Homo sapiens,” who originated in South Africa and reached the northwest of the Indian subcontinent around 60,000-80,000 years ago in very small groups. These groups survived by gathering and hunting in various environments: coastal areas, mountains, hills, plateaus, and river valleys with their extended families. The regions of their arrival included the Ganges Basin, Satpura, the Vindhyas, Deccan, and parts of Sri Lanka. Some areas had hostile environments like dense forests and mountains; over time, some groups became obsolete due to uncertain events like floods, droughts, and forest fires. Regions with plentiful food led to population growth among those groups. Over time, they learned the use of fire (9,500 years ago), practised burial of the dead, and developed hunting techniques. According to Colin McEvedy’s estimates, roughly 200,000 people lived during that period. The birth and death rates were nearly equal, and life expectancy was around 30 years.

Around 8,500 years ago, people began agricultural practices (Neolithic Revolution), increasing the population to around 500,000. Hunter-gatherers had a slightly longer lifespan than the agricultural population because of their diverse diet; their movement from one place to another led to more opportunities in terms of food and survival. The spread of agricultural activities in the Indus Valley and the Ganges Basin around 5,000 years ago led to a population increase. With the advent of this new civilisation, urban living centres began to emerge. Harappa, a major city in the Indus Valley civilisation, had its mature age around 4,600-3,900 years ago. The land was accompanied by the main rivers of the Indus system: Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, and Satluj. The population then was around 4 to 6 million, according to estimates by McEvedy and Jones. With more land and food resources, the population grew, but after a point, it started to concentrate because the food was sourced back to only cereal harvests. Thus, food became less secure. In addition, there were human diseases like diarrhoea, measles, polio, water-borne diseases, tuberculosis, influenza, and sanitation problems.

Thus, from a mainly agriculture-dominant population, people favoured a combination of agricultural and demographic expansion, and many migrated to the Ganges Basin. With this, the advent of Arya-speaking people emerged in the subcontinent, largely from the northwestern region.

The basis of this migration was more fertile soil, rich in agriculture, an increased farming population, rivers providing transport and supplies, and the emergence of new cities. Small kingdoms started to emerge, culminating in the rise of the Mauryan Empire (200 BCE to 1000 CE). One of the main cities of the empire, Pataliputra, had a population of 100,000. One interesting fact about the empire was that information on people was available in the Mauryan inscriptions in three languages carved on rocks and pillars. Then, the Chief Minister of Chandragupta Maurya, Kautilya, documented population data in the Arthashastra. The numbers in the text reflect the complex civilisations that emerged at that time. Aryan settlements were mostly along the riverside cities like Mathura, Delhi (Indraprastha), Vaishali, Pataliputra, Chamba, etc.

The period between 1000 and 1707 started with the rule of Muslim armies and ended with Aurangzeb’s death. Afghan warriors led by Turks, Mohammad Ghazni, and then his successors from 1000-1026 began reaching the northern part and most of the Indian subcontinent. One of his successors, Mohammad Ghori, attacked and established the Delhi Sultanate in 1210. It was also the period of the Slave Dynasty, and the rulers were harsh towards their people. It lasted until 1526 when the final ruler, Ibrahim Lodi, was killed by Babur. The Delhi Sultanate ruled most of the north, from Punjab to Bengal. Babur’s grandson, Akbar, established his empire from 1556 to 1605. He was known for his respect towards non-Muslim communities and the abolition of the jizya tax imposed on them. After his successor Aurangzeb took the throne in 1658, his rule lasted for 50 years. The population during this period was around 100–145 million.

The chapter also discusses the arrival of Europeans to the Indian subcontinent through the Kerala coast in search of spices and other resources. The population during this period was estimated to be between 125-145 million. The decline of the Mughal Empire began from 1701 to 1821, with the rise of British rule. The death of Aurangzeb in 1707 led to internal struggles and the downfall of the Mughal Empire. In the early 18th century, the Marathas gained power against the Mughals. Meanwhile, the period witnessed warfare and military conflicts between the Mughals, Marathas, and British forces. This period also saw a rise in famines, the most prominent being the Bengal Famine of 1769-70. Severe crop failure in 1768 in Bihar, followed by continued failure, led to starvation. The number of deaths from the famine remains unknown. The population during this period also suffered from diseases like cholera, malaria, and smallpox. People in non-agricultural areas suffered the most from the famine, as they had no access to food supplies. However, the author’s claim that 10 million people were affected by it is considered an exaggeration. The exact population figure for the 1800s remains uncertain, with estimates ranging from 159 million to 200 million.

Thomas Robert Malthus, appointed to the faculty of East India College, London, argued that colonial administration reduced warfare, female infanticide, and disease. However, with this, the population could grow more, making famine a check on population growth. The period from 1827-1871 saw the unification of legal codes, the construction of railways, and the creation of new towns. The British exploited Indian goods, transporting them to Europe, while India imported cheap factory-made textiles. Another major factor that led to the Rebellion of 1857-58 was the British East India Company’s loss of control over Delhi, Kanpur, and Lucknow, leading to Crown rule replacing company rule. The population in 1857 under British rule was estimated at 180 million, but when adjusted for territories not under their control, it rose to 224 million.

The period of 1821-1871 also saw advancements in data collection processes. Some of the earliest population records were taken from temple lists, genealogical scripts, and household counts known as the Khanasumari, maintained by Maratha officials.

Here is the revised version with UK English spellings, improved grammar, and better readability while preserving the original meaning:

The Madras Presidency took the lead in conducting an internal census, followed by Bombay and the Central Provinces. This period also saw the introduction of vital registration for births and deaths. Life expectancy during the 1830s was extremely low, averaging 25 years, particularly for those living in Delhi, including the British population. The general population had a young age structure, and the sex ratio was skewed in favour of males. Female infanticide was widely practised during this period, and it was only after the 1870s that efforts led to its abolition.

The famines between 1821 and 1871 were different from earlier ones in that they were less destructive. The reasons for this included the expansion of the railway network, which improved food supply distribution, and the construction of irrigation canals, reducing dependency on monsoon rains.

Despite these developments, the period 1871–1921 witnessed a demographic crisis due to famines, plague, and the 1918–19 influenza pandemic, which claimed more lives in India than in any other part of the world. However, overall mortality rates became more stable during this period. As Indian leaders like Bal Gangadhar Tilak and Dadabhai Naoroji advocated for independence, they also criticised British policies, which had a profound impact on the population. During this time, India’s population grew from approximately 255 million to 305 million.

The 1880s were generally free from major disasters, resulting in steady population growth. However, the famines of 1896–97 and 1899–1900 caused a population decline. The 1918–19 influenza pandemic struck during the First World War, with over a million Indian men enlisted in the army. According to the Sanitary Commission for India Report (1918), many soldiers contracted influenza and brought the disease to Bombay in May 1918. The northern and western regions of the subcontinent were more severely affected than the east and south. Indian soldiers suffered particularly high mortality rates, with death rates recorded at 19.2 and 61.6 per 1,000 population for Muslims and low-caste Hindus, compared to 8.3 and 9.0 for Europeans and Parsis in 1918.

The period 1921–1971 saw rapid population growth. Life expectancy steadily increased from 20–30 years in the 1920s, to 37 years by the 1950s, and 43–44 years by the 1960s. However, population growth was geographically uneven, with higher growth rates in the northern regions compared to the south.

In 1964–65, the Registrar General of India initiated the Sample Registration System (SRS) pilot, a dual-record system for births and deaths to maintain demographic surveillance.

Efforts towards family planning also emerged in this period. In 1930, the princely state of Mysore became the first to approve government birth control clinics in Mysore and Bangalore. The 1931 census report indicated a growing recognition of birth control. In 1943, the government established the Bhore Committee to assess the population’s health status. Its 1946 report highlighted the importance of a strong and free healthcare system accessible to all. The creation of Primary Health Centres (PHCs) facilitated family planning services, vaccination programmes, and general healthcare.

During this period, mortality rates declined, but fertility remained high, at 6.5 live births per woman. In 1951–56, India became the first country to introduce a national family planning programme, leading to the establishment of several family planning clinics. By the 1960s, the concept of community health services took shape, with auxiliary nurse midwives (ANMs) educating people on family planning methods and organising sterilisation camps.

Between 1951 and 1971, per capita income increased, food prices were kept under control, and access to safe drinking water, sanitation, piped water, and modern sewage systems improved significantly.

Here is the revised version with only UK English spellings and necessary grammatical corrections, without improving readability or altering the original meaning:

During 1971–2016, poverty remained widespread as economic growth was low during the 1970s. In the 1990s, an important national survey focused on health: the National Family Health Survey in every major state to have data on households, fertility, diseases, mortality, and more. Fertility from 1971–2016 was much higher in the North than in the South. The population grew from 548 million to 1,210 million during the period. That led to better health and education levels with time. Fertility 1971–81 and 2001–11, the total fertility decreased from 5.4 to 3.0, pointing to the better health status of women and reduced risk of dying from causes linked to pregnancy and childbirth.

In the period before 1971, mortality improved slower in urban areas than in rural areas from 1971 to 2016. In 1970–75, life expectancy in urban areas was 58.9, and in rural areas 48.0. By 2011, the difference was lower, with 71.0% and 66.3% in urban and rural areas, respectively. There was a decrease in deaths caused by communicable diseases. However, there was a slow rise in deaths by noncommunicable diseases, causing a dual burden on health. In the 1950s–70s, only half of deaths were due to communicable diseases. By the 1990s, it had decreased to a quarter. However, there was progress in health care in the later period.

The population in 2016 was 1,327 million, 18 percent of the world’s population, with the help of new technological revolution, medicinal care, lower mortality (also with aid from development and international organisations), and a better standard of living. The author concludes by saying that most of the population increase, which was mostly natural, happened in recent decades. The people who existed in the subcontinent and those who came from outside contributed to the country’s diversity. As far as the population count is concerned, for most of history, it has grown very slowly. It was less than 0.1% per year. Then, after 1800–71, the growth rate was 0.35%, followed by 1.2% in 1921–47 and 2.0% in 1947–2016.

As stated above, these variations were caused by various factors: famines, wars, administration, epidemics, and poverty. While succumbing to these famines and calamities, the Indian subcontinent fared better than China and Europe, where climatic conditions were harsher, and global temperature changes posed greater challenges. However, major events did reduce the size of the population, and where weaker people succumbed to the situation more, promoting a high birth rate was stressed.

Another important point the author stressed was the difference in population structures of the North and South of the Indian subcontinent. The northern belt, which came under the Indo-Gangetic plains, was more patriarchal; women bore children at early ages, and fertility was very high, with high mortality due to diseases and epidemics. This led to a slow recovery from population and other crises.

On the contrary, with the ingress of people and influences from Punjab down to the Ganges, the regime was relatively healthier, with unused land and other resources. The southern regime (Dravidian culture), which prevailed below the Narmada River, was less patriarchal. Women had more favourable conditions, and marriage occurred at higher ages. Since excess female mortality was also reduced, there was greater flexibility.

With all this information, the author himself stated that incomplete data and often contradictory numbers are major issues in Indian demography. The book is one of the best reads for students and scholars of history and demography who want to learn about historical population data in India. The author remarks on population size and characteristics from 80,000 years ago to modern times. With so much data based on speculations and contradictions, being a demographer, he challenges them. He developed his understanding and considered the research of several historians and demographers from different periods in Indian history.