Levant After Nasrallah

Hassan Nasrallah, the second Secretary general of the militant organisation Hezbollah since 1992 was assassinated by the IDF, like his predecessor was assassinated by the IDF date. Born in Beirut, Nasrallah rose to a leadership position in the militant organisation which was founded after Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982. A Shi’ite militant force, Hezbollah transformed itself from a regional rebel group to a formidable force in the Middle East, under his leadership. The group has been a proxy for Iran in Middle Eastern conflicts, including involvement in the Syrian Civil War and has helped fight the ISIS in Iraq. Nasrallah was the mastermind behind several military campaigns against Israel, including the Israel-Lebanon War in 2006 and crafted a political framework in Southern Lebanon, following the disastrous civil war in the country.

Rise in Rank and File

As leader of the Hezbollah, Nasrallah had displayed political pragmatism and shrewd military strategy. Following Abbas al-Musawi’s assassination in 1992 by the IDF, Nasrallah adopted a two-fold approach. Firstly, he engaged in extremely calculated provocations against the Israelis given Hezbollah’s limited resources and manpower. Secondly, Nasrallah carved a space for the Hezbollah in Lebanese politics, transforming it into one of the most powerful Non-State Armed Group (NSAG) in the region with exceptional military capabilities in conventional and non-conventional warfare.

Hezbollah’s military wing, the Islamic Resistance, played a strategic role in the conflicts with Israel in 2000 and 2006. His actions led to Israeli forces withdrawing from Southern Lebanon, granting him favour with Hezbollah’s masters in Iran. Various armed factions in Syria and other parts of the Middle East found in him a leader. Besides pragmatic decisions in engagement with Israel, Nasrallah also cemented financial and technical relations with Iran. Under his command Hezbollah to create political and armed networks that were integrated into Lebanon’s social fabric. Hezbollah is perhaps one of the most important proxies to Iran in its axis of resistance against Israel and by extension, the West.

The Ideas Behind the Man

An uncompromised opposition to Israel was the cornerstone of Nasrallah’s ideology. Nasrallah understood the importance of political participation along with military interventions. He was able to commandeer an important position within the Lebanese state. Hezbollah’s primacy within Lebanon came at the cost of unification and healing of wounds after the disastrous civil war and Lebanon has not been able to recover its footing in the middle eastern geopolitics. He built close ties with the supreme leader of Iran, sharing ideological similarities with its regime including a strong anti-Israel stance and a vision for a Shi’ite regional order. Iran used the Hezbollah as an important force to intervene in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, to great opposition.

After-Nasrallah’s Assassination by Israel and Its Implications

Israel conducted a series of attacks on Lebanon, late evening on the 28th of September. F-15i fighter jets of the Israeli Air Force’s 69th Squadron taking off from the Hatzerim Airbase carried out the assassination of Hezbollah terror chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on Friday. Israel used bunker busting bombs to target underground bunkers of the Hezbollah leadership. In the attack Secretary-General Hasan Nasrallah was assassinated. This led to build-up of tension in a region already on pins and needles. The attacks have caused widespread panic in Lebanon, including the displacement of nearly 50,000 individuals, as reported by the Lebanese Health Ministry.

A possible military confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah could be expected since the assassination, given that peace between Israel and Lebanon was already on thin ice since the 2006 war. As of writing, the IDF has carried out limited ground intervention in Southern Lebanon. The fallout has been a sustained missile attack from Iran.

Nasrallah’s killing could have significant implications for the balance of power in the region. While his death could lead to a vacuum in the Hezbollah rank and file, the military structure of the organisation remains largely in place, not dismissing the possibility of an armed escalation in revenge. Saudi Arabia has publicly distanced itself from the happenings in the region, keepings its economic prospects as priority. All these factors cumulatively will play a critical role in what happens next in the Middle East.

Conclusion

Hassan Nasrallah led Hezbollah for nearly three decades. In the three decades of his leadership, Hezbollah emerged from the shadows to become an organised quasi-political and overtly militant organisation. However, the expansion of Hezbollah’s operational territory from Lebanon to Syria and Iraq, also meant that it became hard for them to maintain operational secrecy and exist like they did in Lebanon. In Syria, the Hezbollah had to work with the Russian Wagner group and other NSAGs and was much more easier for the intelligence agencies of Israel and the US to gather intel on them.

With the assassination of Hasan Nasrallah, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has sent a strong message about his intentions and only time can tell whether it will be the winning gambit.