The Education Curve: Teaching Young People in a Greying World

In Indian culture, Vidhya Daan, which means imparting education to someone, is regarded as the greatest act of charity. Similarly, it is believed that Vidhya is the biggest treasure; that is why it is said, Vidhya Dhanam Sarv Dhanam Pradhanam. Traditional Indian wisdom knew what contemporary economists are only now recognising with sophisticated statistical analysis: that true wealth does not reside in figures but in the development of human potential. As we reflect on the deeper population changes that are remaking our world, this ancient advice provides a lens through which we may reframe our strategy towards education and development.

The Population’s Story and Its Transformation

The transformation of populations has long fascinated policymakers and scholars. A few years ago, eminent planners and economic experts expounded with great confidence on the theory of the “demographic dividend” that was coming India’s way – that wondrous moment when declining birth rates would produce a bulge in the working-age population, supposedly spurring economic growth. The impression was created that with this dividend, India’s economy would rise phenomenally and triumphantly. But something was missing in that analysis, as if it were a piece of music played with technical accuracy but without soul. Their narrative was lusciously straightforward but fundamentally flawed.

Beyond Numbers: The True Wealth of Nations

It is strange that in the modern world, we have come to love quantification so much that we have reduced many complex human realities into neat indices. This characteristic of conventional demographic understanding, particularly regarding the demographic dividend, tends to focus solely on dependency ratios but does not touch on the qualitative side of human development.

Professor Wolfgang Lutz and his team’s work provide the necessary revision to this incomplete picture. Through their careful study of 165 nations over three and a half decades, they found something that would not have astonished our philosophical ancestors: it is gains in education, not age structure changes, that underpin economic growth. In fact, in countries with poor foundations in education, shrinking youth populations are actually associated with poor economic performance.

Look at the divergent paths of two countries with comparable demographic profiles. South Korea transitioned from poverty to prosperity not merely due to demographic transition but through phenomenal investments in human capital creation. Their spectacular journey started with universal basic education and continued by developing high-order skills, cautiously matched to economic demands.

Meanwhile, several Latin American countries experienced similar demographic transitions but achieved far less impressive economic results. The difference was not in their population pyramids but in their commitment to meaningful education and skill development.

The magnitude of this effect is significant. Counterfactual analyses imply that without its educational transformation, South Korea’s per capita income today would be only one-third of what it is. In contrast, the economic effect of demographic change alone would have been negligible.

We are reminded of the old Sanskrit proverb: “Sa vidya ya vimuktaye” – real education is that which liberates. In development terms, we could modify this to say that real education is that which contributes to both individual and societal change.

The Tapestry of Skills in a Changing Landscape

As we move along the congested streets of Old Delhi or the shiny hallways of Bangalore’s IT parks, we witness the seeming contradiction between talent shortages and unemployment. Businesses complain in frustration about vacant slots despite millions of job seekers. This gap between education and employment persists across countries at all levels of development.

The skills gap manifests in different ways across our multi-faceted global terrain. In Japan’s ageing society, firms struggle to find successors to retiring craftspeople and technical specialists whose skills have been accumulated over decades of hands-on practice. The time-honoured knowledge transfer across generations is strained under population pressure.

In young countries such as India, the problem takes another form. Millions of young men and women leave schools and universities with degrees but not with the skills that a fast-changing economy rewards. We often see a young engineering graduate driving an auto-rickshaw in a metropolitan city or a management graduate selling tea or opening a snack bar on the streets. When asked about their occupation, they may give a customary reply: “Sir, I can solve intricate equations, but nobody ever instructed me on how to solve real-life problems.”

This disconnection is especially pronounced during times of technological change. The abilities needed today – critical thinking, adaptive learning, collaborative problem-solving – are exactly those frequently overlooked in schooling systems still geared towards memorisation and exam success.

Consider the delicate weaving of a Varanasi artisan, which embodies generations of knowledge gained through apprenticeship. The craft of such artisans is not just technical expertise but a comprehensive knowledge of materials, aesthetics, and cultural heritage. In comparison, our contemporary education systems tend to dissect knowledge into compartmentalised subjects without real-world interconnectedness.

The Geography of Learning in Demographic Transition

If we were to chart the evolving demography of education in our world, we would see patterns as intricate and diverse as the textile cultures of various Indian states.
The quantitative contours are striking. Between 2013 and 2022, the number of children aged under five declined in nearly 80% of OECD countries, while the age group of 5-14 continued growing in two out of three OECD nations. By 2031, according to projections, the trend will reverse in the majority of advanced economies, with decreasing school populations in 37 of 47 nations with available estimates.

These abstractions are reflected in concrete changes in educational environments. In my travels to rural schools in Kerala, I have seen buildings that were once filled with the vibrant sounds of children now half-empty, while urban classrooms in the same state are packed to the brim. In Japan’s rural areas, schools that once served several villages have merged or shut down altogether as young families move to urban centres.

The inequalities between countries often surpass those within them. In OECD countries, urban metropolitan primary schools typically have 36 students per grade, while their rural counterparts have only 21. In South Korea, the disparity is even starker – 63 students per grade in cities versus just 10 in rural areas.
These trends have far-reaching implications for educational quality and equity. At a small school in Himachal Pradesh, a committed teacher instructs three grade levels in one room – a pedagogical task demanding exceptional skill. At the same time, in Delhi’s elite private schools, specialist teachers educate students in technology-rich settings, further broadening the gap between privileged and disadvantaged learners.

The redistribution of educational opportunities along demographic lines thus becomes another channel through which inequality is reproduced across generations. Addressing this challenge requires not just technical solutions but a moral reckoning with issues of justice and social solidarity.

The Cultivation of Capabilities: A New Educational Vision

Our conventional model of education remains curiously outdated—an artefact of industrial-era thinking imposed on a post-industrial era. Despite cosmetic modernisations, the underlying design persists: age-graded cohorts moving through uniform curricula, with periodic testing largely centred on memorisation rather than application.

This system, always imperfect, is becoming increasingly dysfunctional in the face of demographic change and technological revolution. What we require is not incremental reform but a radical reimagining of how we build human potential across the lifespan.

What could this new approach include? Could it be an educational paradigm that draws from both ancient wisdom and modern understanding? First, it would adopt competency-based advancement instead of time-based progression. Why should a mathematically inclined child be required to follow the same timeline as peers with different strengths? This is similar to the ancient gurukul system, where learning evolved based on personal preparedness rather than fixed schedules.

Second, it would link skills development throughout the entire life course rather than concentrating formal education solely in childhood and youth. The old model functioned when career lifecycles were relatively stable, and life expectancy was shorter. Now that working lives extend beyond five decades and career changes are the norm, we must develop systems that enable continuous learning and adaptation.

For example, a textile factory worker in Surat, at the age of 52, retrained in solar panel installation following the closure of his factory through a community-run initiative. His story illustrates both possibility and exception—most displaced workers lack access to genuine skills development opportunities. A truly enlightened system would make such transitions accessible to all.

Third, it would foster not just technical skills but also the deeper capabilities that support adaptability and meaning-making: critical thinking, moral reasoning, creative expression, and self-reflection. These meta-capabilities transcend specific occupations and retain value in the face of technological transformation.

Finally, it would harness technology thoughtfully to personalise learning pathways while preserving the essential human dimension of education. The polarised debate between traditional and technology-centred approaches creates a false dichotomy. Like the Indian philosophy of Nitya Nootan, Chir Puratan—always evolving, forever eternal—effective education integrates diverse approaches according to context and purpose.

The Economic Imperative and Human Possibility

The economic implications of educational quality in the context of demographic change are profound. Take Nigeria, whose population trajectory will significantly impact global development outcomes over the coming decades. Simulations suggest that had Nigeria followed South Korea’s path of educational expansion while maintaining its actual demographic trajectory, its per capita GDP in 2015 would have been 29% higher than observed levels. If both education and age structure had mirrored South Korean patterns, the gap would have been about 65%.

These figures are not merely abstract economic statistics but represent millions of human lives that could have been enriched through better development of capabilities. The stakes are just as high in high-income economies facing population ageing, where the productivity of declining working-age cohorts will determine the viability of social protection systems.

In a village in Maharashtra, an interesting case was observed where elderly villagers, lacking pension income, relied entirely on remittances from adult children working in distant cities. As family sizes shrink and life expectancy rises, such arrangements become increasingly precarious. The solution is not having more children but maximising the productivity and versatility of each individual through improved education and lifelong skill enhancement.

Yet policymakers tend to prioritise short-term economic fluctuations over the deeper forces that shape long-term prosperity. Human capital formation is among the most critical of these forces, yet it receives far less attention than quarterly growth rates or stock market performance.

The Widening Gulf: Demographic Transitions and Educational Inequality
A troubling pattern emerges in societies undergoing demographic transition: while fertility rates decline first among educated, high-income groups, lower-income populations come to constitute an increasing share of younger age cohorts. Simultaneously, urbanisation and immigration concentrate educational demand in regions often least prepared to meet it.

This demographic sorting creates a negative feedback loop: declining youth populations reduce political pressure for education funding at precisely the moment when increased investment is needed to support increasingly disadvantaged students. In India, private institutions maintain excellence through independent funding, while government schools—serving predominantly lower-income students—struggle with inadequate facilities and teacher shortages. Similar patterns are evident in countries ranging from Brazil to China to France.

A policy response to this growing divergence must include interventions designed to counteract demographic forces exacerbating inequality. Early childhood education has proven particularly effective in closing socioeconomic achievement gaps when delivered with cultural sensitivity and parental involvement. Funding models that direct additional resources to high-need areas can mitigate concentrated disadvantage.

In an anganwadi centre in rural Karnataka, well-designed early childhood programmes promote holistic development through nutrition, healthcare, and learning activities tailored to children’s developmental stages. The young children I observed there—largely from rural agricultural families—demonstrated levels of curiosity and engagement comparable to those in elite urban preschools. Such programmes are essential investments in equity, yet they frequently lack sufficient resources and institutional support.

The Dissonance Between Employment and Education

A paradox pervades global labour markets: the simultaneous existence of skill shortages and widespread unemployment or underemployment. Employers struggle to find workers with the necessary skills, yet job seekers encounter difficulties securing stable employment. This contradiction is particularly pronounced during demographic transitions.

In ageing economies, businesses report critical skills gaps while simultaneously discriminating against older workers capable of acquiring the necessary competencies. In youthful societies, graduates with prestigious academic credentials drive rickshaws or work in call centres because their education emphasised examination performance over practical problem-solving.

The root cause of this dissonance lies in the misalignment between education and economic conditions. Educational systems operate with inherent time lags—curricula developed today shape the skills of workers entering the job market years later. Without careful coordination, mismatch is inevitable.

The acceptance of skill-based courses and the availability of resources for teaching such courses—particularly in government schools, where large numbers of students are enrolled—remain major challenges. While skill development is often nominally promoted, there is little infrastructure to enable students to gain real proficiency in any trade or technical skill.

Bridging this gap requires rethinking the relationship between education and employment—not by reducing education to narrow vocational training, but by cultivating broad, transferable skills alongside flexible education-to-work pathways throughout life.

Several promising models offer guidance. Singapore’s SkillsFuture programme provides citizens with lifelong learning credits and a skills framework aligning educational providers with industry needs. Germany’s dual apprenticeship system integrates classroom instruction with workplace training. Finland emphasises strong foundational competencies followed by specialised learning, ensuring adaptability alongside consistently high performance.

Another issue is the social perception of vocational education. It may seem trivial, but in Indian society, an office clerk often receives more respect than a highly skilled artisan. Similarly, within schools, a student excelling in mathematics or science garners more prestige than one proficient in a skill-based subject. Even teachers of academic subjects like mathematics, science, or commerce receive greater respect and higher salaries than those teaching vocational skills.

The Path Forward: Policies for Human Flourishing

If the real demographic dividend comes from education and human capability development and not just from age structure, what policy measures could foster this potential?

First, we need to move beyond sectoral perceptions and understand education as a cornerstone of all development. It involves merging educational planning with overall economic and social strategy so that education ministries recognise educational investment as basic infrastructure and not as consumptive spending.

Second, we require more coherence throughout the life course. The artificial distinctions between early childhood development, primary education, secondary education, higher education, and workforce development create unnecessary transitions and lost opportunities. Nations need integrated human capability development strategies that cut across these conventional boundaries.

Third, we have to balance innovation with evidence. Practice in education tends to swing between wholesale adoption of untested innovations and entrenched resistance to change in spite of results. A more fruitful tack integrates respectful conservation of good practice with considerate adoption of tested improvements.
We see encouraging trends in Vietnam, where education reforms have prioritised problem-solving and creative thinking alongside strong literacy and numeracy foundations. Their systematic effort has paid impressive dividends, with Vietnamese youngsters now surpassing students from many richer countries on international tests.

Fourth, we need specially designed interventions to counter the demographic forces propelling inequality:
• Early childhood programmes that foster whole development among disadvantaged children
• Resource management systems that steer additional resources to high-need communities
• Inclusive strategies confronting non-academic barriers to learning
• Flexible re-entry pathways that support educational re-entry across adulthood

Lastly, we need to use technology wisely. Online learning presents promising solutions to demographic issues, potentially reaching high-quality education to areas of scattered populations. Yet, technology needs to enhance human interaction and be used with wise consideration for access and equity.

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, we witnessed both the potential and constraints of technology-supported learning. As online platforms allowed many to maintain continuity in their education, they also expanded already existing gaps between the connected and disconnected. This experience highlights the need for technological incorporation that facilitates educational intent and not propels it.

A Personal Reflection on Education’s Purpose

Let me take a personal aside. Over several decades of study in very different educational settings – from Rajasthan village schools to top European universities – I have seen that the essential aim of education goes beyond economic usefulness, though that aspect is clearly vital.

Learning at its core is about the development of human potential and the passing on of civilisation’s collective knowledge. It is our deepest intergenerational obligation – the education of young adults not just for economic contribution but for reflective engagement in cultural, civic, and intellectual life.

The population problems confronting education systems globally are quite daunting. Certain societies have to educate fast-growing youth populations under limited resources. Others have to sustain educational quality and access amidst shrinking enrolments and budgetary constraints. All have to prepare students for futures marked by technological change and ecological uncertainty.

Overcoming these challenges involves transcending simplistic demographic dividend narratives to a more sophisticated perspective on human capability development. It involves an acknowledgement that real demographic dividends do not arise solely from beneficial age structures, but rather from the conscious development of knowledge, skills, and wisdom within every generation.

Looking ahead to 2050, prosperous societies will not be those with lucky population pyramids, but those best at developing the capabilities of their citizens through meaningful education and ongoing learning possibilities. The upcoming demographic challenges provide an unparalleled opportunity to rethink education systems globally – not just producing economic expansion but human flourishing over generations. In our ancient scriptures Hitopadesha, it is said:

Vidhya Dadati Vinayam
Vinaya Dadati Patratam
Patratvad Dhanamapnoti
Dhanaat Dharmam
Tato Sukham

Which means: Knowledge makes humble, Humility begets worthiness, Worthiness creates wealth and enrichment, Enrichment leads to right conduct, and Right conduct brings contentment and thus Happiness.
We need to change our perspective on Education and Skilling to make this world Happy and Prosperous.