The Paradox of Political Forecasting: Reflections on 2024

In the complex tapestry of Indian democracy, a profound transformation is reshaping the political landscape that challenges conventional wisdom about electoral behaviour and political participation. Through extensive field research across India’s diversified regions, I have noticed a significant shift in the nature of political discourse and the pattern of voter behaviour, especially as related to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its transformation. This subtle change has far-reaching implications regarding our understanding of democratic participation and political communication in today’s India.

The Changing Face of Political Discourse

Political discourse in India traditionally manifested itself in myriad community spaces, which served as crucibles of democratic discourse. Spaces - village chaupals, communal ponds, tea shops, bus stands, paan dukans, and qasbai addas, that were, at once vital forums for political opinions, had historically operated. In recent years, the character of political discourse in these spaces has experienced an impressive transformation.

Most significantly, BJP enthusiasts, who were once loudly chattering about their political preferences, have transformed into what I would describe as a ‘silent voting community.’ This, of course, is not so much a shift in communication style but rather symptomatic of a more significant change in the party’s voter base and the political engagement within India’s polity.

The New BJP Voter: Demographics and Incentives

The past decade has seen a considerable reconfiguration of the BJP’s voter base, which has primarily been due to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s widespread developmental and social support programs. The new support base is increasingly coming from traditionally marginalised communities such as Dalits, nomadic tribes, and other economically disadvantaged groups, which have always remained on the periphery of India’s political discourse.

The beneficiaries’ silence in the public sphere should not be taken to reflect political apathy or coercion but rather as a strategic choice, what I would like to call ‘strategic silence,’ used by communities that have historically employed silence as both a survival mechanism and a form of political expression. Their reticence emanates from a pragmatic interest in protecting the benefits that they have acquired anew and their position within the developmental state framework.

The Psephological Challenge

The shift creates special challenges for electoral analysis and political projection. Methods of psephology calibrated to measure only the louder forms of political support are often incapable of capturing the potential electoral importance of this silenced majority. Political analysts, reared in the culture of surveying political preference through explicit verbal articulation, tend regularly to underestimate their electoral chances when confronted by this new, inexpressive electorate.
The poor and the marginalised, who now form a large chunk of the BJP’s support, generally are not forthcoming in publicly stating their political preferences. This reluctance arises from historical experiences of social marginalisation and a practical approach to political participation wherein practical benefits take precedence over ideological expression.

Governance and Anti-Incumbency

Most significantly, it has challenged well-established theories regarding anti-incumbency in Indian politics. Governance by the BJP has shown notable resilience against anti-incumbency factors generally prevalent under the control of states. Factors behind this include the following key elements:

First, pro-poor policies have directly linked the government and its beneficiaries. Second, strict monitoring mechanisms, often personally overseen by Prime Minister Modi, ensure the effective delivery of developmental schemes at the grassroots level. Third, the moral oversight provided by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has helped maintain political accountability and ethical governance standards.

The party’s leadership team, Home Minister Amit Shah, Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, and others, shows great efficiency in converting even the trend of anti-incumbency into pro-government support. As can be seen from this aspect of the recent state assembly elections conducted in Haryana, the normal theories of anti-incumbency failed to explain correctly what happened in polls.

Vocal Opposition

While the BJP’s silent support base remains mute, Congress supporters and other opposition voices have become more vociferous in public spaces. Several factors contribute to this greater visibility. First, an anti-establishment position inherently breeds confidence that often manifests in protest politics. Second, the new induction of left, ultra-left, and centrist voices within the opposition has amplified their presence in public discourse.

These vocal opponents have created what may be termed an ‘echo chamber effect,’ where like-minded voices reinforce each other’s perspectives, creating an impression of broader public support than may actually exist. This phenomenon often leads political analysts to overestimate opposition strength while overlooking the electoral significance of the silent majority.

The transformation I describe reflects a broader process of democratic deepening in South Asia, particularly in India. Increased participation by previously marginalised groups, especially women, Dalits, and other disadvantaged communities, is a significant development in democratic practice. This trend manifests in consistently increasing voter turnout among these demographics and their growing stake in the democratic process.

This deepening of democracy works on two primary mechanisms. First, there is a steady increase in democratic awareness among hitherto marginalised communities. The state’s support system has brought up many beneficiaries who have changed into aware voters, cognisant of their stake (hissedari) in democracy.
The beneficiaries evolved from various social support schemes from government may slowly emerge as an agency of democratic deepening in Indian society. In this process they may acquire capacity to aspire which may slowly transform them in democratic agency in Indian society. It is true that they may show their agency on booth on the day of election but this agency of silent voters may also reflect in their everyday social life while dealing with various kinds of power relation in their everyday life.

Future Implications and Sustainability

While these changes in the political landscape of India are important, their permanence is not assured. Continued electoral success for the BJP would be very much dependent on its ability to continue being responsive to changing public aspirations and needs. Thus far, the party has been amazingly adaptable, taking what can be called ‘Punarnava’ - constant reinvention and renewal - to meet emerging challenges.

This adaptive capacity will be crucial as India’s democracy continues to evolve. The party’s ability to maintain its relationship with beneficiaries while expanding its agenda for development will likely determine its future electoral prospects. This model’s success also has important implications for our understanding of democratic participation and governance in developing societies.

Reflections and Way Forward

It reflects a significant evolution of democratic practice by challenging traditional assumptions around political participation and electoral behaviour, marking the transformation of the political public sphere in India. It captures how marginalised groups engage differently with democratic processes and, hence, how benefits-based politics influences their electoral choices more than the ‘silent voting community’ that has emerged on BJP’s side.

That also demands a recalibration of what it means to understand India through an analytical perspective on political behaviour there through electoral analysis. Traditional kinds of electoral analysis need new avenues because these silent majorities need their political preferences expressed better than in public discourse, and more so at the ballot box, to be precise. Understanding these trends and dynamics increasingly becomes important as democracies continue to deepen with that aspect in India. This model’s success in building stable governance while extending democratic participation has potential lessons for other developing democracies. However, sustainability will depend on continued responsive governance and effective policy implementation. Balancing development with democratic deepening will remain critical for the country to progress while maintaining political stability and social progress.