Who is Leading the AI Race? : Insights from The Tortoise Global AI Index 2024

Over the last year, the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) has been at the forefront of technological advancements, fueled by crucial global developments that have transformed the AI ecosystem. On September 19, 2024, Tortoise Media released its fifth edition of the Global AI Index, which evaluates 83 countries’ AI capacities through an extensive array of indicators. This year’s edition uses 122 indicators derived from 24 different public and commercial data sources, as well as insights from 83 governments. These indicators are divided into seven sub-pillars: talent, infrastructure, operating environment, research and development, government strategy, and commercial ecosystem, which are then combined into three overarching pillars: implementation, innovation, and investment.

The selected indicators utilise the most recent data available, reflecting ongoing developments and challenges in the global AI field. The Global AI Index adhere to strict standards, guaranteeing that no data included is older than 2019. The index uses a 2019 cutoff date to evaluate startup ecosystems, guaranteeing a current assessment of the rapid expansion of AI startups.

The US and China: Dominating AI on a Global Scale

As seen in the previous years, the United States and China continue to dominate the AI scene, holding the top places in all three pillars of the index: implementation, innovation, and investment. With a flawless score of 100, the United States continues to beat China, which has a score of 53. Both nations excel in terms of absolute AI capability, as defined by the ‘Scale’ of their AI production on the world stage. This leadership has been attributed to the massive resources, talent, and infrastructure that have been allocated to AI, with both countries continually at the forefront of research, development, and commercialisation.

The United States has maintained its dominant position through a complex ecosystem of AI research and development, strong government funding, and a robust commercial sector. In contrast, China has spent extensively in AI infrastructure and talent development, establishing itself as a serious participant in AI innovation, notably in the creation of new AI models and patents.

The index utilises 122 indicators, grouped into seven sub-pillars: talent, infrastructure, operating environment, research and development, government strategy, and commercial ecosystem. These sub-pillars are organised under three main pillars: implementation, innovation, and investment. Each sub-pillar and its categories carry a specific percentage weight, indicating their relative importance in the overall evaluation.

A Competitive Field: The Top 10 Nations

While the United States and China maintain their dominant positions, the following eight nations in the rankings are significantly closer in terms of AI capability, with scores ranging from 33 to 23. Singapore maintains its third-place ranking, owing partly to its strategic emphasis on AI intensity, AI capability compared to size where it beats several larger countries. Despite fierce competition, the UK remains in fourth place, showing its excellent AI talent pool and regulatory environment.

One significant change in this year’s score is France’s stunning ascent to fifth position. The country has emerged as a prominent participant in the AI scene, thanks to a robust generative AI ecosystem that fueled its rapid growth. Germany (7), too, has shown consistent development since 2021, climbing the ranks as it improves its AI infrastructure and research skills. However, not every country has seen favorable trends. Israel (8) and Canada (9), historically strong achievers in AI innovation, have seen their ranks drop.

The Future of AI Leadership

The 2024 Global AI Index emphasises how governments all over the globe are beginning to view AI as a strategic priority. With strong AI ecosystems and government backing, other nations are making tremendous progress even if the US and China still hold a dominant position. The potential for nations to improve their AI capacity via focused investments in personnel, research, and infrastructure is demonstrated by the astonishing ascent of France and the consistent growth of Germany.

However, the global AI competition is far from over. The rankings are probably going to change as nations improve their AI policies and integrate new technology. Smaller countries with robust AI ecosystems will continue to be vital in determining the direction of AI progress since both scale and intensity are emphasised.

Emerging Hubs: Singapore, France, and India

Singapore retains its third-place rating, retaining its role as Asia’s dynamic AI powerhouse. Its relatively small size belies its importance in AI research and application, especially in terms of talent density and infrastructure development. Singapore leads in relative indicators, such as AI talent per capita, and has made outstanding progress in absolute measurements, challenging global leaders in infrastructure and AI research output.

The United Kingdom is fourth, with France close behind in an increasingly close battle. France’s recent AI breakthroughs, particularly in open-source large language model (LLM) research and public sector support, have elevated it to fifth position. Mistral, France’s national AI champion, competes against huge models from the United States and China to show off the country’s AI ability in non-English language learning tasks.

India has risen into the top 10, thanks to its large and highly skilled AI workforce. However, India’s AI ecosystem is struggling to retain talent, since many of its best AI experts have moved abroad. While India’s academic institutions are strong, the country has yet to translate its AI expertise into significant commercial investment or computer power, a shortcoming that may limit future progress.

The Role of Talent and Infrastructure

AI capacity is extremely dependent on the two key areas where the United States is already a world leader: people and infrastructure. The United States hosts 27% of the world’s sophisticated AI experts, and most come from abroad. Such a large talent pool has greatly contributed to the United States’ dominance in fundamental and applied AI research. This is further supported by the best computer infrastructure in place, along with AI processors supplied from both sources like Nvidia, which keeps it at par with international benchmarks of the world. India comes in second simply on account of having an enormous population and high academic institutions, but as far as specialisation at the researcher level in AI goes, it is left way behind smaller high-performing ones. In fact, both Israel and Singapore are left on the list regarding AI talent density.

Infrastructure continues to grow in importance in the AI system, particularly in the use of high-performance computing, which complements deep learning and deployment of AI. US has a competitor’s lead in AI hardware through its firm that has the largest market share in AI chip manufacturing. All these notwithstanding, China’s best efforts at avoiding export bans, the United States is a country mile ahead in its access to cutting-edge AI hardware.

Other important countries in the supply chain of semiconductor products include Singapore, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea - all of whom play a vital role in providing semiconductor products needed for AI computing power. However, this strength in infrastructure does not necessarily translate into AI success more broadly. An excellent example can be seen with Japan and Taiwan’s inability to succeed more widely outside of their semiconductor infrastructure.

Investment and Government Strategies: Saudi Arabia’s Surprise Lead

A notable finding in the 2024 index is the growing significance of government funding in AI. Saudi Arabia has emerged as a pioneer in this field, with public AI investment plans that exceed those of the United States and China. The Kingdom has actively attracted outstanding AI experts from across the world, establishing itself as a new AI development powerhouse.

Although Saudi Arabia’s private sector AI research is still in its early stages, the country’s aggressive governmental investments and strategic focus on AI have the potential to transform the Middle Eastern AI landscape. The country’s AI expansion is consistent with its wider Vision 2030 aims, which seek to minimise dependency on oil and diversify its economy through technological innovation.

The United States has lately made moves to counter increased competition from countries like as Saudi Arabia, most notably with a $280 billion investment in semiconductor manufacturing and research projects targeted at boosting public-private partnership in AI. China, too, has responded to these changes by increasing government funding for AI infrastructure, talent development, and AI-specific research initiatives.

A Critical Perspective on the Future of AI Leadership

While the 2024 Global AI Index showcases advancements in AI capabilities across countries, it also raises serious concerns regarding the long-term viability of this development. The overwhelming dominance of the United States and China presents a barrier for other countries looking to build strong AI ecosystems. This disparity emphasises the potential risks of a divided global AI environment, in which a few countries control the majority of the resources and infrastructure required for AI growth.

Furthermore, when nations such as Saudi Arabia make ambitious investments in artificial intelligence, the global balance of power may alter, resulting in new dynamics in international relations. This might result in increasing competition and conflicts over technical superiority. Smaller nations, although exhibiting extraordinary intensity in their AI initiatives, may struggle to maintain long-term viability in the absence of the essential infrastructure and funding.

Additionally, it is critical to consider the ethical consequences of AI breakthroughs. As governments compete to use AI for economic gain, issues about privacy, data security, and the possibility of bias in AI systems must be addressed. The fast advancement of AI raises concerns about legal frameworks and the need for international collaboration to promote responsible AI governance.

Finally, while the 2024 Global AI Index provides an overview of current AI capabilities and trends, it is critical to be attentive about the underlying problems and ethical concerns that come with AI’s revolutionary capacity. The future of global AI leadership will be determined not just by technology developments, but also by collaborative efforts to establish an inclusive and responsible AI ecosystem that benefits all nations.